Warner's Summer Blockbuster

Found on Michael Geist on Wednesday, 09 May 2007
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Warner Bros. astonishingly now claims that 70 percent of camcorded movies have been traced to Canada over the last 18 months. Given the claims of 20 percent, 23 percent, 30 percent, 40 percent, and 50 percent did not make the requisite impact (in fact, the USTR even rejected the movie industry's request to escalate Canada on the Special 301 Watch list), we now get a blockbuster number of 70 percent.

Moreover, with New York City taking 40 percent of the camcording claims and with Spiderman 3 apparently appearing on China streets weeks before the previews in Canada, the numbers just don't add up.

Last week I pointed to a U.S. GAO study that found that counterfeiting claims are massively overblown with less than one percent of randomly inspected shipments into the U.S. containing counterfeit products, a far cry from the 5 - 7 percent that is often claimed. Today, the Financial Times reports that a forthcoming OECD study concludes that losses of global counterfeiting amount to no more than $200 billion, far less than the $1 trillion claimed by the International Chamber of Commerce.

The problem is, little numbers don't impress anybody. The sad thing is that politicans buy those numbers without checking them. That's why 110% doesn't seem strange to them. And remember: 110% of all camcorded movies come from Canada and New York City; you still have to add some percent for the rest of the world.